Blog: AI – A Promising Partner for Outcome Harvesting

By Goele Scheers

The conversation around the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in evaluation is rapidly gaining momentum. I find myself intrigued to explore how it can add value to each step of Outcome Harvesting, but my focus in this blog is specifically on how it  enhances the harvesting of outcomes and refines the analysis and interpretation process.

AI is invaluable for document reviews in OH as it can swiftly sift through vast amounts of textual data, identifying potential outcomes much more quickly than manual methods. It’s like having a super-efficient assistant who never gets tired! Moreover, AI’s capability to summarize these documents ensures that external evaluators don’t overlook any contextual information crucial for the evaluation. AI can also analyze speech in interviews which can help harvesters in extracting outcomes from verbal communication.

However, what really excites me is AI’s potential in assisting sources to formulate well-crafted outcome statements. The iterative ping-pong process, essential in Outcome Harvesting for deriving smart, specific, and measurable outcomes, can also be time-consuming. AI can step in here, guiding sources through an interview process, essentially taking over the initial task of harvesters. Harvesters can then concentrate on fine-tuning the final outcome statements, checking for any nuances or errors AI might have missed. Alternatively, it can make the process of reviewing outcome statements for harvesters more efficient.

Furthermore, AI’s assistance extends to categorizing outcomes and playing a pivotal role during interpretation. By employing advanced data analysis techniques, AI can uncover deeper trends and patterns between harvested outcomes, possibly identifying insights that might be missed by human analysts. This can lead to a richer, more nuanced and unbiased understanding of the change that was achieved.

In terms of tools, while general AI applications can handle queries related to Outcome Harvesting, custom GPTs are notably more effective because they are programmed with an intrinsic understanding of the OH process. Driven by this potential, I developed two AI bots for Outcome Harvesting. ‘Harvest Helper’ assists in formulating outcome statements through targeted questions and the ‘Harvest Analyst’ aids in categorizing outcomes and detecting trends and patterns in the outcome dataset. These tools are available for everyone to use.

While AI offers considerable potential, it’s essential to understand that it functions as a supportive tool in Outcome Harvesting, enhancing our efficiency and refining the process, rather than serving as a substitute for our expertise as Outcome Harvesters. AI helps to save time and resources and it complements and augments our human expertise, but does not replace it. An expert in OH remains indispensable, particularly in verifying whether the outcomes identified by AI truly align with the Outcome Harvesting standards and in crafting the content for a comprehensive and high-quality Outcome Harvesting evaluation report. 

Despite this caution, I’m genuinely enthusiastic about embracing AI as a partner in our OH journey. It promises to make our work faster, more accurate, and insightful.

I’m eager to hear your thoughts on this. How have you used AI for Outcome Harvesting? What potentials and pitfalls have you encountered?

Blog: Not everything that counts can be counted, part 2: Graphs, Bubbles, and Infographics

 

By Chris Allan and Atalie Pestalozzi

As we noted in Part 1 of this blog, graphs showing the number of outcomes can sometimes be misleading. So, what do we recommend?

Work collaboratively: Acknowledging that many of the decisions we make are subjective, we try to work collaboratively to decide what constitutes an outcome, how they are weighed, grouped, or split. Working as a team helps curb individual biases and interpretations of outcomes and tell the story from more perspectives.

Explain what the methodology does and doesn’t do: To avoid any confusion around what Outcome Harvesting is, make the qualitative nature of the methodology explicit. Along with talking about what’s great about Outcome Harvesting, explain the shortcomings of the methodology and the biases in collecting data that make it great for painting a picture, but not for statistical analysis. To manage expectations with the commissioning organization, we do this from the get-go. We walk them through these same examples, and often decide with them what qualifies as an Outcome, whether to lump or split, and how to present the patterns that emerge.

Let simple images get the idea across

Simple representations that deemphasize the numbers are the clearest ways to present results. Below are some alternatives that give a visual snapshot of the story rather than just counting up results.

With this example, a quick glance tells you that the program had more influence at international level than at national or local. The actual number of outcomes that produced this do not add depth or quality to this story, so while the relative proportions of the bubbles reflect the actual totals, the numbers were not included.

Alternatively, the graphic below shows which groups changed the most in the program by varying how many boxes are stacked up. Though it’s more numerical, the goal is still for viewers to get the overview without scrutinizing numbers:

 

2022-08-16 Mott Foundation Graphics.png 

Tell a story:  When we can, we present patterns of outcomes as infographics. By creating a visual “pathway to change” that tells the story about how an outcome actually happened, we can show how the program works when it is successful and highlight the contributions of key players. Numbers alone don’t capture the complex process or collaborations that go into producing an outcome.

These images work best when they are accompanied by a brief narrative to guide the reader through the story.  As an example, the infographic below traces the timeline, actors, and strategies involved in shifting state budgets in Nigeria to better support smallholder farmers.

 

A second example traces a ten-year effort to promote gender equality in land inheritance in Ghana.

In conclusion, remember that Outcome Harvesting is a qualitative evaluation tool that’s meant to help assess complex programs and their progress toward the expected and unexpected. Quantifying outcomes doesn’t do us any favours, but some data lends itself better to quantitative methods like surveys and can complement outcome data well. What we take away from an Outcome Harvest should get us thinking about programs less linearly and more creatively, and stories are better at doing that than numbers.

Note from the OH blog committee: Do you agree with the author’s take on the value and challenges of quantifying outcomes? What strategies do you use for sharing data in ways that resonate with users? We’re looking forward to your comments or blogs! Barbara Klugman and Awuor Ponge